The Bali real estate market enters 2026 with a record-breaking tourist base: Indonesia has recorded 6.95 million foreign arrivals for 2025, a 9,72% year-on-year increase. This maintains high occupancy rates in prime locations and generates robust rental demand. At the same time, the market is transitioning from a "gold rush" phase to a more mature model: Bali villa yields are becoming more differentiated between high-quality and generic properties, and capital is flowing into specific corridors.
Below is an analytical analysis of two key locations for high-net-worth investors.
Bali Common Market 2026: Key Targets
Before comparing locations, it's important to capture the island's median values. According to consolidated data from analytics platforms:
- The average active short-term rental property in Bali brings in around USD 12,700 per year with an occupancy rate of 47% and an ADR of $144;
- the median sale price of the property is approximately $299,000;
- Land value growth was approximately 15-30% over two years, and annual growth in strong micro markets was 7-15%;
- According to Magnum Estate, the net return on villas in Bali with professional management is 10-15% versus 4-6% when managed independently.
These figures are the baseline. Prime corridors show a noticeable upward deviation, and this is where investment in Canggu and Pererenan is concentrated.
Canggu: a mature market with high competition
Rental rates and occupancy
According to the AirROI analytics platform for the period from July 2025 to June 2026, the average Airbnb property in Canggu brings in $22,855 annually with an ADR of $21,500, an occupancy rate of 37.50, and a RevPAR of $84,000; there are approximately 3,988 active listings. The spread between segments is significant: the top 10,000 properties earn from $43,000 per night, the top 25,000 from $23,000, the median is around $12,000, and the bottom quartile is around $49,000 per night. Meanwhile, top villas achieve occupancy rates of up to $51,000, while the market leaders among the top 10,000 properties maintain occupancy rates of $41,000+.
Prices for properties and land
The entry threshold has risen significantly over the past five years:
- Leasehold land in Canggu costs $70-95 thousand per 100 m² depending on the location; Berawa - about $82.5 thousand per 100 m², Pererenan - $55-75 thousand per 100 m²;
- a two-bedroom villa with a pool will cost $350-450 thousand, premium positions - from $500 thousand;
- A finished villa in Canggu is traded in the range of $1,500-4,000 per m².
For buyers planning to purchase Canggu apartments in a hotel-condo format, the price per square meter is higher: compact apartments are priced in the range of $2,600-3,520/m², while villas are priced in the range of $1,745-2,480/m², depending on the configuration. The apartment format, however, offers a different economics: the net yield for hotel-condo apartments is 10-12%, while standard villas are 8-12%.
Changu's key limitation is saturation. The market has reduced its supply by 6.9% due to the exit of weak listings, leaving room only for high-quality projects with strong management.
Pererenan: West Canggu's Premium Corridor
Rental rates and occupancy
Pererenan demonstrates superior metrics than mature Canggu. In terms of AirROI, the average Airbnb host in Pererenan earns approximately $4,000,000 per year with an ADR of $4,000,000, occupancy of $4,000,000, and RevPAR of $4,000,000. Some portfolios show even higher figures: in the Pererenan submarket, a portfolio of two-bedroom villas achieves an occupancy rate of $8,600,000 versus the market average of $6,100,000. This confirms that, when properly conceptualized, Pererenan Bali real estate functions as a premium asset rather than a generic offering.
Entry costs and rising land values
Here the threshold is lower than in central Canggu, and capitalization is higher:
- The average price of land in Pererenan is about IDR 13 million per m²;
- land in Pererenan is 20-30% cheaper than Batu Bolong with access to the same pool of tenants;
- Pererenan showed 22% growth in land values for 2024;
- Budget villas start from $150-250 thousand, premium positions go higher.
For investors willing to consider off-plan Pererenan Bali real estate, a separate capitalization layer is added during the construction phase (see below).
Comparison of Changgu vs Pererenan
| Metrics | Changu | Pererenan |
| Airbnb's average annual revenue | $22 855 | $26 036 |
| ADR | $215 | $217 |
| Occupancy rate (average market) | 37,5% | 42,6% |
| RevPAR | $84 | $94 |
| Land, per 100 m² | $70-95 thousand. | $55-75 thousand. |
| Two-bedroom villa | $350-450 thousand. | from $150-250 thousand (base) |
Pererenan wins on three fronts simultaneously: higher ADR, higher occupancy, and lower entry barriers. Investments in Canggu remain valid for the "mature market with a liquid secondary segment" strategy—it's easier to resell the asset and find a tenant faster.
Calculating ROI and capitalization during the construction phase
Basic model for a ready-made villa in Canggu
A model for a two-bedroom villa priced at $285,000: with AirROI for 2026 (ADR $214, occupancy 41.1%, annual revenue $25,791), operating expenses typically amount to approximately 30% of revenue—management, maintenance, taxes, and utilities. This yields a net yield of approximately 6-9% excluding capital gains. A realistic range is confirmed by independent sources: Canggu traditionally shows stronger short-term results—gross yield of 9-11%, net after expenses 6-8% for a high-quality three-bedroom villa.
Model for Pererenan and off-plan capitalization
For investors considering off-plan properties, value appreciation during the construction period is key. The industry uses the following benchmarks:
- In 2026, prime properties in high-growth corridors - Pererenan and Berawa - will generate gross yields of 12-18%, while generic villas in saturated areas will generate 6-8%;
- Off-plan projects in developing corridors include in their presentations a capital gain of up to 40% during the construction period;
- Prime corridors (Uluwatu, Pererenan) are projected to provide 3-7% annual growth in value in 2026-2027.
The return on investment for Bali real estate in this combination (rental flow + capitalization) reaches a level unattainable for completed projects. However, it's important to assess the risks: the 15-20% ROI claimed by developers is rarely confirmed in practice after all operating expenses have been paid.
Realistic ROI for Indonesian real estate
Three independent sources agree on net income estimates:
- 6-12% net per year for a well-managed villa;
- 7-10% net with gross ROI of 10-15%, average load of 70-75% is considered a strong result;
- 4-6% for independent control and 10-15% for professional control.
The difference between the "brochure" and actual ROI is operating expenses, rental income tax (10%), 2026 licensing requirements, and tropical climate maintenance.
Forecast for 2026-2027
Key trends that will impact Bali rental prices and property capitalization:
- Market stratification. The total increase in supply of approximately 29% (approximately 38,000 listings) has divided the market: generic villas are losing profitability, while professional operators in niche segments continue to grow.
- Shifting demand to the West. The Canggu-Pererenan-Berawa-Umalas corridor accounts for a third of all real estate transactions in Bali.
- Tightening of licensing. Effective March 31, 2026, Airbnb and Booking.com will remove listings without valid NIBs and Standard Certificates. This reduces competition among legitimate operators.
- Demand for long-term rentals. Digital nomads make up about 20% of the long-term rental market, focusing on Canggu, Ubud and Pererenan.
For investors, this means: the baseline scenario for 2026-2027 is a moderate increase in the cost of high-quality properties with a decrease in the profitability of generic offerings.
To receive an ROI calculation for specific properties, an up-to-date price comparison table, and a profitability forecast for your budget, download the investment catalog and contact our B2B department. Analysts will prepare a customized financial model broken down by location, format, and management strategy.